Tsunami Risk Reduction Measures with Focus on Landuse and Rehabilitation
Tsunami Risk Assessment and Mitigation in South & Southeast Asia- Phase 2
Dowload: First Circular of International Symposium on Tsunami Risk Assessment and Mitigation in South & Southeast Asia 1-2 December 2009, Manado, Indonesia
Background
Following the successful completion of Phase 1 of the project (Tsunami Risk Reduction Measures with Focus on Land-use and Rehabilitation) in 2006, the discussion on the design of Phase 2 became of great interest to concerned parties. As Phase 1 Project, the second phase will also be fully financed by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). During Phase 1, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) has been recognized among S & SE Asia countries as the institute with a high level of international and professional competence in the areas of study. Therefore, it is selected as the consulting agency to carry out the next phase of tsunami project.
Based on subsequent discussions with MFA, an extended Phase 2 study aims at identifying tsunami risk and needs for mitigation measures for other countries in S & SE Asia that are considered most vulnerable to tsunamis. The countries found of most interest to focus on for a Phase 2 study are Indonesia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. CCOP will still be responsible for the coordination of the project and NGI will take a role of Technical Executing Organization. In addition, there will be collaboration and resources drawn within the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC).
Scope of Work
The aims of the Phase 2 project are:
- To identify the tsunami risk to human life, property and infrastructure in the countries or areas to be included in the study.
- If the risk is found unacceptable in the short, medium or long term, propose risk mitigation measures that are considered most viable in the local setting. Such risk mitigation measures may include awareness building, warning systems, emergency and evacuation plans, land use planning, and physical protection measures. Establishment of procedures for such risk management is considered vital for the long term planning of how the countries shall develop their coastline in the future.
- Through workshops and seminars ensure transfer of knowledge and training in how to deal with the tsunami risk on central and local government levels.
To provide input to ADPC’s activities for deployment of warning systems in part of the region, especially with respect to optimizing locations of tidal gages and seismic stations.
The detailed scope of work for the invited countries will vary according to the needs as found from the actual tsunami hazard assessments and the capabilities of the individual countries.
Tasks and Partner Organizations
The following Ministries, Departments or other Government agencies that have, or will have, a defined responsibility for dealing with the tsunami hazard, are found appropriate for further cooperation:
Indonesia: The Geological Agency
The Philippines: The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
Sri Lanka: The Disaster Management Center
Vietnam: The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
Representatives from the TEO will take part in all these local meetings/workshops/seminars. CCOP and ADPC will also be present at some of these arrangements.
The planned activities (2008-2009) for Phase 2 Project are:
1) 1 or 2 country based workshops and dissemination seminars in each country.
2) Country-based on- the- job type training programs as seen feasible.
3) 1 regional seminar or congress, open to participants from all over SE Asia
Expected outputs
- Country-based summary reports which will focus on presenting conclusions from the tsunami risk assessments and to a certain degree proposed mitigation measures.
- 3- 6 Workshops and Seminars with about 20 to 40 participants at each one, whereof 1 regional.
- Training of 10 to 20 local people
Result of the CCOP Project; Tsunami Risk Reduction and Hazard Mitigation in South and Southeast Asia Phase II.
The East and Southeast Asia region, much of it situated on the ‘Pacific Rim’, has always been vulnerable to geohazards such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions often culminating in extensive economic damage and human tragedy. The Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) is the main Southeast and East Asia Geoscience inter-government agency that play the major role on prevention and mitigation on geohazards impacts in order to reduce the risk of communities within the region. Flooding and landslides have also taken a heavy toll and for these reasons CCOP, in its determination to remain an organisation relevant to the needs of society, has devoted an ever increasing effort to its programme on Geohazards in recent years.
Tsunami risk reduction and hazards mitigation plan for Southeast Asia
The CCOP has accelerated the program on disseminating knowledge about tsunami and other geo-hazards as well as risk information to the public with the present project on Tsunami Risk Assessment and Mitigation in South and Southeast Asia phase II. In this respect, how to live in geo-hazard risk areas with least danger or most safety is very much important to the local people and visitors mainly in Indonesia and the Philippines. With adequate knowledge on geohazards, the people can be aware of dangers and damages from its impacts, and prepare themselves ready for prevention and mitigation to avoid great impacts and lessen of live and property losses in the future. (CCOP, 2009)
Historical tsunamis and earthquakes were investigated using available catalogues. A regional tsunami database was established, indicating that there is a high level of seismicity the last 100 years and a large number of historical tsunamis within the last 300-400 years. It is clear that the main areas of tsunami generation are located close to the major fault zones. The database shows that a large number of tsunamis have occurred in eastern Indonesia and the Philippines, and that the sources are distributed over many regions. Even so, most other efforts on tsunami simulations and tsunami warnings are nowadays focusing on the western part of the Sunda Arc, from the Andaman Islands to southern Java.
The tsunami hazard was studied using numerical methods within seven seismic regions (Western Sunda Arc, Bali/Flores, the Banda Sea, North Sulawesi, Irian Jaya, Southwestern Mindanao, and the Manila Trench). Tsunami hazard maps for earthquake generated tsunamis were developed based on numerical simulations for a total of 15 ‘credible worst case scenarios’. In addition, three landslide generated tsunami scenarios were analyzed for demonstration purposes.
Regional hazard maps for Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and eastern Indonesia are developed by merging maximum water levels obtained from simulations for a range of earthquake generated tsunami scenarios, whereas only one worst case scenario are considered for Vietnam.
The Full report can be download below:
1. MAIN REPORT Tsunami Risk Reduction Measures Phase 2.
http://www.ccop.or.th/download/Final_Tsunami2_Rpt/Main_report.pdf
2. Evaluation Tsunami Hazard in Sri Lanka.
http://www.ccop.or.th/download/Final_Tsunami2_Rpt/Evaluation_Sri_Lanka_Tsunami_Hazard.pdf
3. Evaluation Tsunami Hazard in Vietnam and Gulf of Thailand.
http://www.ccop.or.th/download/Final_Tsunami2_Rpt/Evaluation_Tsunami_hazard_Vietnam_and_Gulf_Thailand.pdf
4. Tsunami Risk Evaluations for Indonesia.
http://www.ccop.or.th/download/Final_Tsunami2_Rpt/Tsunami_Risk_evaluations_Indo.pdf
5. Tsunami Risk Evaluations for the Philippines.
ttp://www.ccop.or.th/download/Final_Tsunami2_Rpt/Tsunami_Risk_evaluations_Phil.pdf
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Tsunami Risk Assessment and Mitigation in South & Southeast Asia- Phase 1 (End, Freely to download report)
Background
The project on Tsunami Risk Reduction Measures with Focus on Landuse and Rehabilitation is a fast-track project, with an eight-month period of implementation, supported by the Norwegian Government through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norwegian Embassy in Bangkok, Thailand. The main purpose of this project is to establish practical guidelines for land use and rehabilitation of the devastated areas, considering the risk of future earthquake and tsunami events. Activities of the project include field survey, local advisory panel meetings, workshop and dissemination seminar. This project shall be carried out by CCOP and the Department of Mineral Resources (DMR), Thailand with technical cooperation of the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI).
Scope of Work
The main purpose of this project is to establish practical guidelines for land use and rehabilitation of the devastated areas, considering the risk of future earthquake and tsunami events. The project focus on establishing rehabilitation plans along the tsunami struck areas along the coasts of Thailand so that consequences of potential future tsunamis can be limited to an acceptable level. It will involve identifying the earthquake and tsunami risk levels and alternative risk reduction measures. The project is proposed as an 8 month fast track study in consideration of the urgent needs for reconstruction works to commence.
The results of the study will also form a platform giving conceptual results that can be used in other parts of the tsunami struck regions around the Indian Ocean. A major part of the seismic and tsunami risk assessment and modelling carried out as part of this study will actually be directly relevant to the entire region.
The project shall be carried out on basis of whatever specific data that has become available prior to 1 June 2005 regarding the December 2004 earthquake and Tsunami, and updated data regarding historic earthquakes and Tsunamis in the region.
Tasks
- Identification of earthquake-initiated tsunami hazard
- Tsunami modelling and hazard mapping and comparison to extreme storm surge exposure
- Risk mitigation measures
- Establishing overall reconstruction and rehabilitation plans with acceptable risk levels
Specific recommendations shall be given for three typical areas along the coast:
§ Patong City
§ Ban Niang beach resort area
§ Ban Nam Kem fishing village
- Local interaction with authorities and stakeholders in Thailand
- Regional use and dissemination of the results of the project
Activities
|
No. |
Activities |
Date |
Venue |
Total No. of Participants |
|
From |
To |
|
1 |
DMR-NGI Field Survey |
1-Jul-05 |
3-Jul-05 |
Phuket, Thailand |
7 |
|
2 |
CCOP-DMR-NGI 1 st Advisory Panel Meeting, Tsunami Risk Reduction Measures with focus on Landuse and Rehabilitation |
4-Jul-05 |
4-Jul-05 |
Phuket, Thailand |
16 |
|
3 |
CCOP – DMR - NGI Training and Progress Meeting , on the Project “Tsunami Risk Reduction Measures & Rehabilitations” |
23-Sep-05 |
23-Sep-05 |
Bangkok, Thailand |
33 |
|
4 |
CCOP-DMR-NGI 2nd Advisory Panel Meeting, Tsunami Risk Reduction Measures with focus on Landuse and Rehabilitation |
6-Dec-05 |
6-Dec-05 |
Phuket, Thailand |
20 |
|
5 |
CCOP-DMR-NGI Workshop, Tsunami Risk Reduction Measures with focus on Landuse and Rehabilitation |
7-Dec-05 |
9-Dec-05 |
Phuket, Thailand |
24 |
|
6 |
Dissemination Seminar |
9-Mar-06 |
9-Mar-06 |
Bangkok, Thailand |
263 |
|
|
TOTAL |
|
|
363 |
Outputs
- Translation of the summary in Thai
- Printing of 2,000 copies of the report in dual languages, Thai and English for use in the International dissemination seminar and for distribution to relevant interest parties
- Making available the full Project report and the Summary for downloading from CCOP website.
Impact of the Project
- The results of the study and recommendations given have been very positively received by the intended target groups. The study has already an impact on the Department of Mineral Resources and other Thai authorities on how Thailand has dealt with the consequences of the tsunami so far. The results of this project were use as the key analysis factor for the 2 projects of DMR: the Ban Nam Kem Coastal Protection Project and the Post Tsunami Land use Planning of Andaman Sea Coast, Southern Thailand Project.
- Establishment of the Local Advisory Panel is also believed to have contributed to ensuring a local anchoring of the results of the study. Input from the Advisory Panel was also useful and helped focusing on mitigation measures that are considered practical and viable for implementation. The results of the three case study areas will be implied for the revision of mitigation measures as well as the evacuation plans. Involvement of the Local Advisory Panel ensured local ownership of the project and the results.
- Workshops and dissemination seminar arranged for participants from other countries and related international organizations in the region have helped seed ideas on how these countries may take on similar tsunami risk assessments and mitigation studies as done in this project for Thailand.
Sustainability of the Project
- From feedback received, there is little doubt that Thai authorities have already made use of the results, and that it will also impact on how they will plan implementation of mitigation measures. In the implementation Phase, their main challenge will be to maintain focus, ensure local anchoring, financing, and overcome some local obstacles in relation to land ownership and interests of various affected groups.
- The project will also help all countries in the region to focus on the main issues at stake when it comes to dealing with future tsunami risks. The project report was widely distributed through direct information. Accessibility of the report made possible through CCOP and DMR’s home pages. And dedicated action on dissemination of the project results in the international dissemination seminar to all local and international agencies and bodies involved in similar work, including key international organisations such UNESCO-IOC, ADPC, UN-ISDR. Countries in regions other than the Indian Ocean region can also benefit from the Project.
- The sustainability of the Project can be further enhanced by carrying out similar risk assessment and mitigation studies for other countries that are exposed to earthquake and tsunami risks that presently have yet to conduct such a study.
- The Project results can also have an impact on other on-going, or planned activities in the establishment of early warning systems to bring to the attention of the need that such systems have an optimal and long term focus, as well as appropriate mitigation and rehabilitation measures that may be taken.
- As a result of the project, and subsequent to the discussions at the international dissemination seminar, there were indications of interest by several countries in the Region to submit requests for the conduct of similar studies.
Lessons Learned
A key to the success of the Project is believed to be the following:
- A strong focus on achieving results that will be possible to implement
- Very strong support from local counterparts which believe in the purpose and the benefits of the project and the importance of seeing its speedy completion
- A very close interaction with authorities and local stakeholders in Thailand.
- A project team that had both wide professional background as well as high in-depth expertise.
- A project team that have extensive international contacts within their fields of work.
- A project team that also has professional people taking care of coordination.
- Given the complexity and urgency of the project, and the many parties involved, good and efficient coordination is vita for the success of the project
Conclusions
The successful completion of this fast track study on the “tsunami and extreme weather risk reduction measures with focus on land use and rehabilitation” has proven that all parties involved were able to take appropriate and fast action immediately after the Dec 26 2004 that had caused so many casualties and so much economic destruction. It is appropriate that this project has been expeditiously completed so that the results can be used by the authorities to better prepare and plan for similar calamity, which is now not a question of if but when it will happen, and to minimize the loss of lives and assets when such event occur in the future.
To make the project effective, purposeful and sustainable, it has incorporated the needs and views of the local people through the Local Advisory Panel. The project has also maintained the close cooperation and communication with the local Thai Authorities, carried out some training that contributed to technology transfer, and ensured wide dissemination of the results to the stake holders locally and internationally through holding the dissemination seminar at the end of the project. All these have proven to be vital to contributing to the complete success of the project.
The results and recommendations of the project are useful for Thailand to take appropriate actions to prepare for the similar future catastrophic events. Thailand had already made use of the project results in implementing ongoing as well as planning of future activities. The results and recommendations are also useful in guiding other local, regional and international initiatives in areas such as early warning system, rehabilitation, mitigation and preparedness in facing future similar threats.
CCOP would like to express its deep appreciation to the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Royal Norwegian Embassy in Bangkok for the generous financial support and cooperation for this project which has important significance in caring for the well being of the people and protecting the wealth of the Region. The Department of Mineral Resources, Thailand is gratefully acknowledged for the close cooperation that contributed to the success of the project. Thanks are expressed to the Technical Executing Organization led by NGI for carrying out the study in the most professional manner.
15 October 2008
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